Arenado Shuts Down Trade Rumors—But Could That Decision Hurt the Cardinals Later?

Against all odds, the St. Louis Cardinals are firmly in the playoff race, and Nolan Arenado remains part of the picture. Despite speculation that he’d be dealt, the veteran third baseman remains in St. Louis—at least for now.

Since Arenado joined the Cardinals, the team has failed to live up to expectations. With his age, contract, and the franchise seemingly headed into a transitional phase, most figured 2025 would see him in a different uniform.

St. Louis did try to make that happen this past offseason. The Houston Astros were the only team seriously interested, and a deal was nearly complete. But Arenado used his full no-trade clause to shut it down—throwing the Cardinals’ offseason plans into disarray. In the end, they held onto their eight-time All-Star, and now find themselves just 2.5 games behind the division-leading Chicago Cubs. On the surface, it looks like the decision worked out.

Or did it?

As the trade deadline nears, Arenado’s name is once again surfacing in rumors. But following a key win over the Cubs on Tuesday, he appeared to shut the door on any possibility of leaving. Still, while things feel upbeat in St. Louis right now, the choice to keep Arenado might come back to bite.

Currently sitting at 44–36 and holding a Wild Card spot, the Cardinals are riding high. And Arenado, whose only demand has always been to play meaningful October baseball, finally feels like he’s in the right place. After the game, he reflected on how much this season has surprised him and how much he’s enjoying the ride.

“I didn’t think we’d be winning like this,” he said, via John Denton of MLB.com. “I thought we’d compete and play well defensively, but it’s exciting to play games that matter. I’ve done a lot individually, but now I want to win something with a team. This is the most excited I’ve been to come to the ballpark in years.”

That hunger for postseason success is why Arenado forced his way out of Colorado in the first place. Now that he feels close to realizing that goal in St. Louis, it’s hard to picture him waiving his no-trade clause anytime soon—no matter what president of baseball operations John Mozeliak might prefer.

If the Cardinals keep winning, a midseason Arenado trade is highly unlikely. And fans would love nothing more than to see October baseball return to Busch Stadium. But from a front office perspective, it’s worth asking: is this really the best move for the team’s long-term outlook?

Despite the recent surge, this Cardinals roster doesn’t exactly scream championship contender—especially when stacked against NL powerhouses like the Dodgers, Phillies, or even the Cubs. The pitching staff is beginning to regress, and the offensive production may not be sustainable.

So Mozeliak faces a major decision: does he push all in for a playoff run that might not go far? Or should he stick to a longer-term vision—even if that means moving on from fan favorites? Arenado is still productive, but he’s not quite the superstar he once was, and his contract is a burden. Offloading that deal could clear salary space, open up opportunities for young infielders like Thomas Saggese, Nolan Gorman, and top prospect JJ Wetherholt, and maybe bring back future assets.

Privately, the front office may still wish that Houston deal had gone through. But with Arenado committed to staying and the team suddenly winning, the Cardinals may find themselves stuck—celebrating the present while sacrificing the future.